In an ideal world, chicken wings would increase your life expectancy, the government would pay you to drink bubble tea, and a Covid-19 vaccine would have been produced by now.
A vaccine seems to be our only hope for the deadly and cruel disease which has infected over 6,000,000 people and killed more than 370,000 globally.
But alas, scientists are still holding their hands up, asking for patience.
Bill Gates, creator of Windows and the world’s most famous rich person, said that a coronavirus vaccine could take around 18 months to develop, a prediction many experts agreed with.
But what if one is never developed? What will we do then?
Well, to everyone’s horror, that is actually a distinct possibility. Here’s why.
Not All Viruses Are Created Equal
In 1984 (the year, not the spine-tingling novel), a US politician announced that scientists had successfully identified the virus that was spreading and killing many Americans, and predicted that a vaccine would be ready for testing in two years, according to CNN.
That virus later became known as HIV (human immunodeficiency virus).
It’s 2020 now, and after 32 million deaths, we’re still waiting for an HIV vaccine.
See, there are still some viruses that we don’t have vaccines for because they mutate rapidly.
Influenza, for example, mutates every year, which is why you need a yearly flu shot. HIV is even worse because it mutates during a single infection.
“It continues to mutate in you, so it’s like you’re infected with a thousand different HIV strands”, one infectious disease specialist told CNN. “(And) while it is mutating, it’s also crippling your immune system.”
Fortunately, the coronavirus does not change as rapidly as HIV. This is why some experts have expressed confidence about a vaccine being developed.
Then again, they were certain in 1984 that an HIV vaccine would be produced, so one can never definitively predict these things.
Plus, there are other viruses that are similar to the coronavirus, like rhinoviruses and adenoviruse, which are hard to develop vaccines for.
And herd immunity – what happens when a large group of people is immune to a disease, which makes it hard for the disease to spread further – may not be enough because coronaviruses do not tend to trigger long-lasting immunity, reported The Guardian.
So, even if one gains natural immunity, they may be reinfected the next year.
What then, will we do if scientists never manage to develop a vaccine for Covid-19? Will we have to stay in our homes forever and say goodbye to eating Chendol at the coffee shop?
Well, maybe not.
Treating the Disease
While no HIV vaccine has been developed yet, the disease is not the death sentence it once was thanks to preventative treatments.
“In HIV, we’ve been able to make that a chronic disease with antivirals. We’ve done what we’ve always hoped to do with cancer,” Offit says.
Pre-exposure prophylaxis, or PrEP, is a preventative pill that has protected thousands of people at risk of contracting HIV from the disease.
In the absence of a vaccine, we could manage Covid-19 in a similar manner.
US President Donald Trump famously touted Hydroxychloroquine as an effective Covid-19 treatment even though there has been no evidence to back his claim up.
Other treatments like the anti-Ebola drug remdesivir and blood plasma treatments are also being explored.
So if a vaccine is never developed, the coronavirus could be with us for many years, but we would be better equipped to treat patients.
This means that infections will continue to go up, unfortunately.
Life Without A Vaccine: Permanent Lockdowns?
Does this mean that we’ll have to stay in our houses forever? Will a once vibrant and bustling globe turn into a collection of tiny prisons?
Thankfully, the answer is no. Even if a vaccine’s never produced, lockdowns are not sustainable economically.
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But humans will have to adopt a new, weird way of life, where masks, social distancing, and frequent hand washing are part of our everyday lives, according to TimesNowNews.
And if there’s a large outbreak, swift containment would have to be enforced again, meaning lockdowns in areas where there is a high number of infections.
The citizens have to play their part, of course. Seeing a doctor the minute you feel sick, self-isolating, and avoiding large gatherings.
Companies might also have to continue their work from home arrangements, at least on some days, to ensure that their offices are never bursting with employees.
I’m sure many employees are saddened by the thought that they may never return to their workplaces.
The government will also have to ramp up medical infrastructure and contact tracing efforts to effectively combat any outbreaks that may occur over the years.
Much like the flu, Covid-19 could be something we learn to live with.
Reasons For Optimism
There are, however, a few reasons for us to be optimistic about our chances of producing a vaccine.
Firstly, coronaviruses mutate slower than viruses such as influenza, according to The Conversation. So, if we develop a Covid-19 vaccine, it may be effective for quite some time, unlike flu shots.
Secondly, the chances of developing a vaccine are higher because scientists all over the world are devoting all their time and effort to this one task. As TimesNowNews says, billions of dollars are being poured into research and manufacturing efforts.
Thirdly, and most importantly, China’s State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) announced a couple of days ago that a Chinese-made vaccine could be ready by the end of the year, prompting jubilation all across the globe.
But, as I said before, we shouldn’t celebrate prematurely, because no one can be certain about whether these vaccines will be safe or effective.
For now, all we can do is be hopeful.
Reader: Can I also eat Chendol at the coffee shop with my friends while drinking a cup of bubble tea?
I said be hopeful, dear reader, not delusional.
Here’s a simplified summary of the South Korea martial law that even a 5-year-old would understand:
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