Studies Suggest Each Wuhan Virus Patient Will Infect 2 – 3 People on Average

By
Shawn Ambrose
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The world is panicking.

A deadly virus from the Chinese city of Wuhan has spread all over the globe, infecting over a thousand people.

It has already claimed 56 lives, according to The Straits Times.

It seems like every day, an article about the pandemic comes out with worse news than the day before. Just yesterday, the fourth case of the Wuhan virus was confirmed in Singapore.

And now, experts are saying this:

Each Wuhan Virus Patient Will Infect 2 – 3 People on Average

Yes, you read that right. Each person infected with the Wuhan virus is spreading the disease to between two and three other people on average at current transmission rates.

This was based on two separate scientific analyses of the pandemic.

The outbreak may not continue to spread at this rate, however. It all depends on the effectiveness of control measures, scientists said.

But in order to contain the epidemic, control measures would have to halt transmission in at least 60 per cent of cases, CNA reported.

Neil Ferguson, one of the scientists who co-led one of the studies, said “”It is unclear at the current time whether this outbreak can be contained within China”.

As you know, the vast majority of Wuhan virus patients are in China, with the death toll rising to 56 on Sunday (26 Jan).

4,000 could have already been affected

The team also suggests that as many as 4,000 people in Wuhan were already infected by 18 Jan and that on average each case was infecting two or three others.

Now if the number of zeros above scares you, it’s about to get much, much worse.

They estimated that the city of Wuhan alone could have a whopping 190,000 cases of infection by 4 Feb if the “epidemic continue(s) unabated”, the scientists said.

They added that “infection will be established in other Chinese cities, and importations to other countries will be more frequent.”

Another concerning thing about this epidemic is just how widespread it has become.

According to Al Jazeera, at least 13 countries have confirmed cases of the Wuhan virus. This includes China, Australia, France, Japan, Malaysia, Nepal, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, United States, Vietnam, and Hong Kong.

Preventive measures

So, what can you do to protect yourself?

Here are some tips, courtesy of CNA.

  • Avoid contact with live animals
  • Observe good personal hygiene
  • Wear a mask if you have respiratory symptoms like cough or shortness of breath
  • Avoid crowded places and close contact with people who are unwell or showing symptoms of illness
  • Wash your hands frequently with soap
  • Cover your mouth with a tissue paper when coughing or sneezing and dispose of the soiled tissue in the bin immediately

Remember, everyone needs to do their part to tackle this epidemic. We fought off SARS, and now it’s Wuhan’s turn.

Here’s a simplified summary of the South Korea martial law that even a 5-year-old would understand:

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Shawn Ambrose
Email: [email protected]