27 June 2020 daily Covid-19 report by the Ministry of Health (MOH):
“86 new Covid-19 cases reported in Singapore today.”
Believe it or not, that’s what several experts are predicting on 27 May 2020.
Experts Say COVID-19 Daily Cases in Dorms Would Be Below 100 in 3 to 4 Weeks’ Time
According to Professor Teo Yik Ying, the dean of the National University of Singapore (NUS) Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, the number of daily confirmed Covid-19 cases in dormitories are likely to fall below 100 in “three to four weeks” time.
On 20 Apr, Singapore reported 1,426 new Covid-19 cases, out of which, 1,369 are workers staying in dormitories.
On 26 May, Singapore reported 383 new cases, out of which 381 are workers staying in dormitories.
The professor said that this shows the effectiveness of the measures being implemented at the foreign worker dormitories.
The R0 (or R-naught) of Covid-19 has been pushed to 0.5. Previously, the R0 of Covid-19 was estimated to be between 2 to 3.
With an R0 of 0.5, it means that every 5 days, the number of new Covid-19 cases will be halved (divided by 2).
So in four weeks’ time, we could be looking at a figure below a hundred.
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It’s Around The Period Of Time When People Starts Testing Negative
On 26 May, Singapore also records its 14th day in a row of having more discharged patients than new Covid-19 cases.
Professor Teo said it’s not due to the change in the criteria for discharge but that the people who have contributed to the surge in cases a month ago are starting to recover.
It’s the natural progression of the virus.
Dr Leong Hoe Nam also attributed the high number of discharged cases to those who are diagnosed about a month ago.
As for the fall in the number of new Covid-19 cases. he estimated that patients who are diagnosed now are likely to have been infected about a month ago.
By now, it’s probably the fourth week of their disease, which means half of them would’ve tested negative as they stop shedding the virus.
Professor Paul Tambyah from NUS’ Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine said the lower case numbers could be due to fewer tests being conducted according to the Ministry of Health.
Nonetheless, he said that the reduced numbers come as a piece of good news to Singapore’s stretched healthcare facilities.
Members Of The Public Must Still Be Careful
If everything goes smoothly, Singapore might be looking at going back to February levels in terms of case numbers.
This doesn’t mean that we can stop being careful.
Professor Teo cautioned that until they know how many per cent of the people in Singapore have been exposed to Covid-19 and developed temporary immunity, Singapore is still very susceptible.
In other words, a second (larger) outbreak wouldn’t be out of the question.
So let’s all keep up the good work and do our part.
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