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Experts Say That the GE Might Take Place This Year After Announcement of Lawrence Wong’s Swearing In

2024-04-17 , 1:51 pm

It’s finally happening.

Prime Minister (PM) Lee Hsien Loong will be stepping down this May and we will soon be saying “PM Wong” instead of “PM Lee”.

DPM Wong Will Be Our Next Prime Minister

On 15 April 2024, the Prime Minister’s Office issued a press statement announcing that from 15 May 2024, DPM Lawrence Wong will be sworn in as Singapore’s fourth Prime Minister.

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This move was not surprising, as PM Lee had already announced his timeline for handing over leadership to DPM Wong.

Last November, PM Lee announced that the handover would happen by the PAP’s 70th birthday on 21 November this year.

51-year-old DPM Wong was endorsed as the leader of the party’s 4G (fourth-generation) team in 2022 after 62-year-old DPM Heng Swee Keat stepped aside to let the younger DPM Wong, with a “longer runway”, take over.

“I intend to hand over to DPM Lawrence before the next GE,” said PM Lee.

Since the handover will happen in a month, you know what that means – the next GE will happen soon.

GE This Year?

15 May is an important date, and while it may not be a public holiday, there’s a chance we’ll get an extra public holiday this year after all.

The next Singapore General Election (GE) must be called by November 2025.

This election will be Singapore’s first GE since COVID-19 mellowed out.

Already, some public servants have been notified of their role as election officials.

With the confirmation of DPM Wong’s swearing in, experts are saying a snap election is very possible.

The next GE may happen by the end of this year, and even as early as September, analysts say.

Why by the end of this year, you may ask?

A year-end election will give the PM-to-be a long enough “runway” to allow him and his team to settle in. It will also give Singaporeans a good amount of time to watch his leadership and potentially get him a mandate from Singaporeans.

At the same time, given the international geopolitical conflicts and domestic issues such as cost of living and housing on the minds of concerned Singaporeans, it would be good for a GE to happen soon.

While some experts speculate that a GE will happen late this year, there are some that suggest an election period in 2025, after the Budget next February.

These experts believe DPM Wong will want to have a slightly longer time as PM, allowing Singapore to get a better feel of his leadership before going to polls.

They also believe Budget 2025 will be a crucial time for DPM Wong to get a mandate from Singaporeans.

Clues On When The Next GE Will Happen

National Day Rally 2024

When the next GE will take place is anyone’s guess, but we can look forward to this year’s National Day Rally (NDR), which will be DPM Wong’s first as Singapore’s PM, for clues.

After Budget 2024 was announced, some speculated that it was an election budget.

Now, after news of DPM Wong’s scheduled swearing in next May, some are speculating this year’s NDR will be a “GE NDR”, referring to one that is primed for sweetening the ground and giving the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) an advantage for the next election.

If DPM Wong announces many initiatives and support during this year’s NDR, experts are saying there’s a good chance the GE will happen soon after.

Many Singaporeans will be tuning in this August to watch the PM-to-be make his first NDR speech as PM to get a glimpse of what plans he has for Singapore.

Electoral Boundaries Review Committee

Another thing to look out for is when the Elections Department forms the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee (EBRC).

The committee recommends the boundaries of electoral divisions, and is made up of senior civil servants with relevant domain knowledge.

After the committee is formed, they will produce a report in a few months. After which, the next GE can take place.

The EBRC was last convened in August 2019, 11 months before the GE in July 2020.

In March 2020, four months before GE 2020, the White Paper on the Report of the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee 2020 was released.

In February 2024, Education Minister Chan Chun Sing said in a written response to a parliamentary question that the EBRC has not been convened yet.

We don’t know when the next GE will take place, but what we do know is that the next few months will be crucial as Singapore’s political parties gear up for the next GE.