S’pore is Projected to be Hotter in 2024 Compared to 2023

By
Chew Ming Hui
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2023 was a year full of ups and downs in terms of the weather — be it the haze, the monsoon season, or the multiple new maximum temperature records set around the island.

Admittedly, one of the hallmarks of Singapore’s weather in 2023 was the extreme heat. While that may be great news for the record books, it’s not great news for Singaporeans struggling with the heat.

But here’s even more devastating news: Singapore is projected to be hotter in 2024 compared to 2023.

2023 Was A Hot Year; 2024 Projected to be Even Hotter

2023 was a hot year, and not in the “sunny teen summer” way that most of us would have liked it to be.

But there’s even worse news: according to the Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS), Singapore’s weather is projected to be even warmer in 2024 than it was last year.

Last year, Singapore recorded its fourth warmest year since records started in 1929, with an annual average temperature of 28.2°C. We saw this little red dot clock a total of 37 days with some periods of high heat stress in 2023.

Singapore also saw new maximum temperature records set in May 2023, where the highest daily maximum temperature of 37.0°C was recorded in Ang Mo Kio.

But why exactly was Singapore so hot last year, and getting hotter this year?

Double Trouble: Why Singapore Was So Hot in 2023 

There were two climate phenomena responsible for the hot weather in 2023.

The hot weather in 2023 can be explained firstly by El Nino — a climate phenomenon that essentially, causes hotter and drier weather over Southeast Asia due to changes in sea surface temperatures and surface winds over the tropical Pacific Ocean.

Since Singapore is in Southeast Asia (abuden), Singapore is bound to be affected by El Nino events as well.

In the second half of 2023, Singaporeans were, unfortunately, victims of the El Nino phenomenon. However, the warmest annual temperatures from any El Nino event typically occur the year after an El Nino forms — which explains why Singapore is in for an even hotter year in 2024.

Truly, a heng ong huat season for ice-cream vendors and air-conditioning providers.

Yet, that’s not the only climate phenomenon that’s responsible for Singaporeans’ troubles. The hot weather in 2023 was also explained by changes in the other ocean that Singapore is located beside — the Indian Ocean.

Specifically, changes in positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions.

Huh? Gong simi?

In essence, a positive IOD means that Singapore experiences warmer weather as a result of atmospheric and sea surface temperature variations across the Indian Ocean.

And since Singapore is seated right between the Pacific and Indian oceans, changes in conditions over both oceans affect Singapore’s weather. In this case, El Nino in the Pacific Ocean and positive IOD in the Indian Ocean made Singapore’s weather hotter in 2023.

Singapore’s Temperature Records in 2023 Differed from Global Average

The strange thing is this — while 2023 was reported to be the world’s warmest year, 2023 was not Singapore’s warmest year.

The warmest years in Singapore were actually in 2019, 2016, and 1998. The 28.2°C annual mean temperature recorded in 2023 is tied with that in 2015 and 1997.

So, why didn’t Singapore’s temperature records in 2023 break the records set by 2019, 2016 and 1998? Why did Singapore’s temperature records differ from the global average?

No, it wasn’t because an intern at MSS messed up the records.

It was because Singapore was also affected by yet another weather phenomenon — La Nina, which explains why there was so much rain in Singapore at one point last year.

La Nina conditions had developed in Singapore a few years back in 2021, and only ended in the first quarter of 2023. This explains why Singapore had a cooler start to 2023.

The conditions of La Nina also likely had a moderating effect on Singapore’s temperatures, which was why Singapore’s temperature records in 2023 were not exactly that record-breaking.

We’re Living in Singapore’s Warmest Decade Yet

While 2023’s temperatures weren’t so record-breaking, the overall decade from 2014 to 2023 was record-breaking. The last decade has been Singapore’s warmest decade on record at 28.06°C, which is 0.33°C warmer than the preceding decade.

We’re living in Singapore’s warmest decade yet.

And even though we’d love to tell you not to sweat it (pun intended), you probably should — temperatures are expected to continue rising, according to MSS.

By the end of the century, MSS projects that Singapore’s annual average daily mean temperature will increase to between 28.5°C and 32.9°C.

That’s not all. The annual average daily maximum temperature, by the end of the century, is projected to increase to between 31.9°C and up to 36.7°C.

The future looks pretty bleak if you ask me. Think about how warm and sweaty it will be to go for a hike at MacRitchie, a run at the stadium, or even just to take a walk to the kopitiam downstairs for lunch.

It’s also likely that we’ll see an even greater number of days that Singapore experiences high heat stress. In 2023, Singapore experienced 37 days with some periods of high heat stress. However, this number is set to triple by 2050 if global warming continues at its current rate.

So, don’t be too surprised the next time your shirt is soaked with sweat within ten minutes of stepping out of the door lah. 

By the end of the century, the frequency of high heat stress days will escalate even further to reach an estimated 207 to 326 days on average if global warming continues at its current rate.

We’re just glad a number of us won’t be alive by the end of the century to experience the pain of such heat. Seriously, it’s too hot to handle.

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Chew Ming Hui
Email: [email protected]