COVID-19 Could’ve Made China the World’s No. 1 Economy Faster Than Expected

The Covid-19 pandemic may have slowed down the economy in numerous parts of the world, but it appears that the originator of it is not part of the downturn.

Or at least, they are no longer in the loop.

China is reportedly all set to become the world’s largest economy in 2028…

An achievement that’s purported to be five years earlier than projected. 

Though here’s the thing. What exactly gave rise to such an incredible phenomenon?

Well, it may be none other than the pandemic itself:

An occurrence that has slowly and steadfastly eaten away at the top.

COVID-19 Could’ve Made China the World’s No. 1 Economy Faster Than Expected

According to the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), China will leapfrog the United States to become the world’s biggest economy in 2028.

This is due to the differing recoveries of the two countries from the Covid-19 pandemic.

“For some time, an overarching theme of global economics has been the economic and soft power struggle between the United States and China,” CEBR said in an annual report published on Saturday (26 December 2020).

“The COVID-19 pandemic and corresponding economic fallout have certainly tipped this rivalry in China’s favour.”

Apparently, China’s “skillful management of the pandemic”, alongside the ill fortune of the West, contributed to the growth of China’s relative economic performance.

From 2021-25, China looks set to attain an average economic growth of 5.7 per cent a year, before dipping to 4.5 per cent a year from 2026-30.

In comparison, the US is projected to have strong growth in 2021, before slowing to 1.9 per cent a year between 2022 and 2024.

It would then dip to 1.6 per cent.

Of course, do remember: these are all projections. A COVID-22 might just change everything.

Top Five

Meanwhile, Japan would remain as the world’s third-largest economy until the early 2030s, when it’s predicted to be overtaken by India.

Germany, the fourth-largest economy, will consequently fall to fifth.

The United Kingdom, which is currently the fifth-biggest economy, is projected to fall to sixth place from 2024.

Impact

Interestingly, the report also suggested that the pandemic’s impact (on the global economy) is likely to show up in higher inflation.

“We see an economic cycle with rising interest rates in the mid-2020s,” it said. This would certainly prove to be a challenge for governments which have borrowed intensively in light of the Covid-19 crisis.

“But the underlying trends that have been accelerated by this point to a greener and more tech-based world as we move into the 2030s.”

Pandemic

The COVID-19 is widely believed to have originated from Wuhan’s Huanan market – a seafood market, exactly a year ago.

As for the virus, it was suspected to have jumped from bats to humans.

Initially known as the Wuhan Virus, the Coronavirus went on to become a global pandemic, endangering numerous lives and proving fatal to many.

Though China was the worst-hit nation at the start, it soon redeemed itself with strict lockdown measures and other stringent protocols.

In comparison, the United States was lax in its treatment towards the coronavirus and soon paid the price when cases began skyrocketing.

As of 23 December 2020, the United States has over 18 million cases, with over 330,000 deaths. It’s also the country with the most number of confirmed cases.

On the other hand, China has a reported sum of 86,913 cases and 4,634 deaths.

Nevertheless, according to top infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci, it may be possible to attain significant population immunity in the United States, and as early as June 2021.

Priority populations, such as healthcare workers and elderly personnel, should technically be immunised by March or early April.

Subsequently, the general population can start to receive their shots.

Featured Image: IHOR SULYATYTSKYY / Shutterstock.com