Average No. Of Community Cases Has Increased After CB Ended But Unlinked Cases Remain Stable


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In the last two days, we were hit by news that doesn’t bear well for people waiting for Phase Two.

On the first day of Phase One, we had 4 community cases. On the second day, we had 7 of such cases.

And on the third day, the number jumped to 15, which comprises 2 Singapore PRs, 6 work pass holders and 7 work permit holders.

Yesterday, which is the fourth day since students can finally see their crushes in school, the figure remained at double-digit: 11 community cases were reported, with 6 Singaporeans / Singapore PRs and 5 work permit holders.

Looking at daily cases to determine if we’re doing well wouldn’t be accurate since it’s rather volatile, so MOH would often report the average daily cases in a week instead.

And unfortunately, after a downward trend, those two double-digit daily cases has changed the trajectory; yesterday, it was revealed that  the number of new cases in the community has increased, from an average of 5 cases per day in the week before, to an average of 6 per day in the past week.

Does that mean Phase Two is still coming end June…but in 2021 instead?

Image: gipfy

Well, if you’re reading this article, it means you’re not someone who skim through headlines, and you’d know that despite the spike in community cases, this is something that’s projected to happen.

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And so far, the number that we should look at has remained stable:

The number of unlinked cases in the community has remained stable at an average of 2 per day in the past two weeks.

Look Beyond the Numbers

Questions of a specific number to target have been asked by journalists during the multi-ministry task force virtual press conference.

After all, you can’t manage what you can’t measure.

Image: tlnt.com

The answer has been the same: there’s no magic number to look at. We need to look beyond the numbers.

For example, let’s look at yesterday’s numbers. Out of the 6 Singaporeans / Singapore PRs, 5 of them are linked to previously confirmed cases and have already been placed on quarantine. These means they could’ve been infected way before Circuit Breaker ended—heck, maybe even before the Circuit Breaker begins.

Another example that’s more tricky; MOH just discovered that 3 previously confirmed cases might have been infected a while back; they’re still tested positive because they could be shedding minute fragments of the virus RNA picked by the PCR test. They could or could not be infective to others because studies have shown Covid-19 patients are no longer infectious after 11 days of getting sick.

Get the gist so far?


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While the numbers sound scary, it’s important to look beyond the numbers, especially so now that we know that recovered people could still be tested positive.

In addition, MOH is also doing proactive testing and screening, which means we might pick up more local cases—whether past infections, current infections or simply people who’ve already been quarantined.

You’re already doing a good job of reading beyond the headline, so continue to do so because headlines can only provide so much detail.

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