Experts Believe Unemployment In S’pore Will Get Worse Before It Gets Better

The employment sector in Singapore has been nothing short of a disaster of late, what with its ever-increasing unemployment and retrenchment rates. But here’s the thing.

The worst, it seems…

Has yet to be over.

At this point, you probably can’t help but wonder. Just when will it end?

Experts Believe Unemployment In S’pore Will Get Worse Before It Gets Better

According to The Straits Times, experts have said that the worst is not over yet for Singapore’s labour market.

The prediction comes after an analysis of the data for Singapore’s labour market, for the second quarter of the year.

According to them, the tapering of wage subsidies, lack of demand and stretched uncertainties are major reasons for the aforementioned notion.

Just yesterday (15 September), the Ministry of Manpower said that the headline seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, which includes foreigners, rose to 3 per cent in July.

The rate for residents, on the other hand, increased to 4.1 per cent. Residents include Singaporeans and permanent residents.

But experts expect the rates to get even higher.

OCBC Bank’s head of treasury research and strategy Selena Ling, for one, estimates the headline rate to grow to 3.5 per cent in the second half of the year, while Maybank Kim Eng senior economist Chua Hak Bin predicts a peak at slightly above 4 per cent.

Meanwhile, DBS Bank senior economist Irvin Seah expects the collective rate to hit 3.6 per cent, with the resident rate reaching 4.2 per cent.

Figures

In the second quarter, the retrenchment figures reported hit 8,130, the highest number since the 2009 global financial crisis.

The first-quarter figure was 3,220.

The Q2 figures also surpassed the preliminary estimate of 6,700 retrenchments between April and June.

The number of workers on a shorter work week and temporary layoff, on the other hand, stands at 81,720, a worrying figure according to Maybank Kim Eng’s Mr Chua.

In comparison, the number in the first quarter stands at 4,190.

According to Channel News Asia, the number of retrenchments in the first half of the year is at 11,350.

This eclipses the 10,120 recorded during the SARS period.

However, the Ministry of Manpower has said that it’s still lower than other recessionary peaks.

Biting The Bullet

According to The Straits Times, more companies are starting to bite the bullet, with certain industries set to be hindered by the current epidemic for a long time.

This would mean more employees being laid off, with those in ‘cold storage’ also facing the much-dreaded aspect.

“The number of workers on short work week or temporary layoff may fall in the coming months or quarters, but that’s likely to be due to a combination of other sectors returning to more normalised levels of activity combined with some companies taking the tough decision to lay off rather than keep workers in cold storage for a much longer period,” Ms Ling said.

Apparently, the financial sector, which has somehow been largely shielded from the impact of the crisis so far, may be affected if the recessionary cycle persists. And with the tapering of wage subsidies, layoffs will likely continue.

“Firms deferring layoffs may have to face the reality of a prolonged demand slump and rightsize their manpower needs. These will likely include the more distressed sectors, including the travel, hospitality, retail and recreational sectors,” Mr Chua said.

Change In Focus

In light of the less-than-positive circumstances, experts have come to a general consensus:

Broad-based government measures that support employment are not the long term solution, and the focus will have to be changed for the long run.

Better outreach of support schemes to businesses, for instance, would be imperative so that companies can better understand how to utilise them.

Workers should also be willing to adapt to the changing environment.

“Companies, for example, have to redesign jobs to fit the current employment profile and help workers upskill during this period to acquire new capabilities. Workers should stay nimble and be willing to adapt, and take up roles in sectors to remain relevant and competitive,” he said.

Changing Times

The world as we know it is changing.

And Singapore’s employment sector is no different.

As such, it’s vital that we continue to grow and develop if we wish to cope with these rapid times.

As a Wise Old Man once said:

“Tough times don’t last.

“Tough people do.”

And though he definitely plagiarised that quote from some motivational website…

The meaning certainly rings true.

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