Russia Foreign Minister Says Russia & Ukraine Close to Agreeing to a Deal

Perhaps the three-week-long Russo-Ukrainian War is finally seeing the light at the end of the tunnel as Moscow states that there is a possible peace deal in the making as the Kyiv government hints at a route for compromise.

It might seem like a fib at first, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the negotiations were becoming “more realistic”, as the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov spoke that there was “some hope for compromise” if Ukraine maintains a neutral status.

Clearly, some concessions have been made during the most recent meeting on Tuesday (15 Mar).

Russian Initial Demands from Ukraine

From the beginning of the invasion, Russian President Vladimir Putin has laid out his goals for the “special military operation” very clearly:

1. It wants to ensure that Ukraine maintains as a neutral state, which means that Ukraine has to give up on its aspirations of ever joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO).
2. Russia wishes to completely demilitarise Ukraine in the name of its own security interests and peacekeeping of the two breakaway regions of Donetsk and Lugansk.
3. Russia wants the Kyiv government to recognise the independence of the breakaway regions and its loss of Crimea.
4. It wants NATO to withdraw its forces from Eastern Europe to Soviet era times, wherein any military exercise conducted in Eastern Europe required permission from the Kremlin government first.

Needless to say, they are extremely tough conditions that neither Ukraine nor the Western countries were willing to submit to, which is why the Russo-Ukraine war has been dragging out for three weeks.

It is also on these same grounds where NATO has chosen not to move their military forces into Ukraine to defend those lands, in fear that it might worsen the situation and drag the entire European continent into all-out war with Russia.

Instead, they have only chosen to provide humanitarian aid through the new €1.2 billion emergency Macro-Financial Assistance (MFA) programme to Ukraine, while granting another €500 million for EU’s military aid to Ukraine.

Zelenskyy: Ukraine Will Not Be Joining NATO

In the early hours of Wednesday, President Zelenskyy said in an address that there was room for compromise, as long as Russia is taking up “more realistic” positions about what they stand to gain from the negotiations.

With visible disappointment and stress, Zelenskyy said: “It’s clear that Ukraine is not a member of NATO, we understand it. We have heard for years about open doors, but we have already heard that we won’t be able to join it.

“It’s the truth and it’s necessary to admit it.”

You can watch this video to know more about this:

First and foremost, NATO’s eastward expansion has been bothersome to Russia.

For the past three decades, Russia has been vocally against its former Soviet satellite states or breakaway Soviet states joining NATO, but it has never physically acted against any country besides Ukraine and Georgia, in its illegal annexation of Crimea and the recognition of the breakaway provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia from Georgia, and most recently its recognition of the independence of the Donbas Region.

If you would like to understand why Ukraine is so strategically important to Russia from a security standpoint, you can watch the YouTube video done by RealLifeLore, who explains it in great detail:

But to cut long story short, should Ukraine ever join NATO, it means that there is a 230-mile-wide border of flatlands that Russia has to protect, and its loyal ally Belarus would be surrounded on all three sides in the event of a war.

Moreover, if Ukraine ever joins NATO, it would have the right to invoke Article 5 in the event of Russian aggression, wherein an attack against one NATO ally is considered as an attack against all allies, thus giving NATO the right to take collective defence measures.  

Ergo, Russia would be waging a war with almost the entirety of Europe instead of just a singular nation, as it is doing right now.

No NATO Membership But With Conditions Attached

Of course, the fact that Ukraine has managed to stall Russia’s advances into the more central parts of the country shows that they aren’t pushovers either.

From the perspective of Janez Janša, the Prime Minister of Slovenia, it seems to him that President Zelenskyy is offering an olive branch first in hopes for a lasting ceasefire with Russia for a start.

The Ukrainian President seems to be ready to give up the possibility of a NATO membership if it means that Ukraine’s EU membership is guaranteed, and if he can shoot even further to secure some security guarantees.

The latter is apparent in how Zelenskyy paints a horrific “what if” imagery that Ukraine is incapable of withstanding the Russian aggression, which is why he urges the European countries and the United States to help themselves by helping Ukraine strengthen its military defences.

Zelenskyy adds, “You know what arms we need. Everyone knows what defence systems we need. You know what we need desperately.”

In the same vein, he beseeches the Biden administration to do more than just impose sanctions; he urges US companies to stop trading with Russia and supply more military weapons to Ukraine instead.

The Russian Side of Things

Naturally, the compromise of Ukraine’s neutrality is welcomed by Moscow.

As for where they stand regarding Ukraine’s membership in the EU, that argument had already been lost during the Revolution of Dignity in 2014, where the pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych had been overthrown, and Ukraine’s interim government had signed the Association Agreement with the EU.

However, there are murkier waters that haven’t been addressed yet, like the state of the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Lugansk which have been occupied by Russian-backed separatists since 2014, and the annexation of Crimea, which Ukraine has never approved of and wants to reclaim.

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The Definition of “Neutrality”

In the eyes of the Kremlin government, Ukraine’s neutrality is more akin to Sweden or Austria, who are EU member states that are not part of NATO.

This proposal was given by Moscow’s lead negotiator Vladimir Medinsky, and later confirmed by Kremlin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov on Wednesday morning (16 Mar).

However, the Ukrainian Presidential Adviser Mykhailo Podolyak disagrees with the Swedish or Austrian mode of neutrality because it fails to take into account Ukraine’s need for security.

Compared to Sweden and Austria, Ukraine is in a state of direct war with Russia. Even if the war does end, the fact that the Kyiv government will always be under the threat of bear’s paw will never cease, just as how Taiwan will always be wary of China.

“Therefore, the model can only be Ukrainian and only about legally verified security guarantees. And no other models or options.” Podolyak said.

A key part of any deal would be an agreement by the west that they would come to Ukraine’s aid if there were any conflicts with Russia in the future, and there would be no hesitation in imposing a “no-fly zone” in such a war.

The Need for Air Coverage

The latter condition, and Zelenskyy’s emphasis on the need for fighter jets, mainly stems from how Russia has not stopped shelling Ukraine over the three weeks.

1. Kyiv – a 12-story residential building in Shevchenkivskyi district was damaged after it was impacted by Russian shelling.
2. Chernihiv – Russian shell or rocket killed 10 people queuing for bread
3. Kharkiv – overnight artillery attacks have claimed civilians lives and destroyed two residential buildings.
4. Mariupol – Russian forces have been shelling the port city for weeks, allegedly killing more than 20,000 people (unconfirmed), and even targeting a drama theatre that had been converted into a shelter for around 1,000 people. Access to electricity and water have been cut off for Mariupol for more than a week.
5. Kherson – Ukrainian airstrikes on Kherson airbase cast doubts on whether Russia has fully claimed the area.

Thus far, Mariupol has genuinely taken the brunt of the artillery strikes and shelling.

Drone footage posted by Ukraine’s Azov Battalion on Monday (14 Mar) shows the extent of damage done to Mariupol, which has also been confirmed by satellite imagery.

Worst still, it has been reported that approximately 400 hospital staff and patients at Ternopil municipal city hospital No 2 in Mariupol have been taken hostage by Russian forces,

It has also been said that the Major and his deputy in the port city of Shadovsk have been kidnapped by the Russian forces as well.

In summary, Zelenskyy concludes that Russia has turned Ukraine’s skies into a “source of death”, which is why Zelenskyy wants a new security framework that can protect Ukraine from such threats in the future.

Peace Talks or Cover Up

Another piece of concern that other EU leaders have is whether Moscow is toying with the Kyiv government.

Despite Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stating on public television that “neutral status is now being seriously discussed along, of course, with security guarantees”, and he believes that both sides are near the point of agreement, some people aren’t completely convinced.

Lavrov’s remark sounded rather empty when President Putin and his ministers made a televised appearance later, scorning the domestic opponents of his war and censuring the west for attempting to destroy his country.

“Any people, and especially the Russian people, will always be able to distinguish the true patriots from the scum and the traitors, and to spit them out like a midge that accidentally flew into their mouths,” he said. “I am convinced that this natural and necessary self-cleansing of society will only strengthen our country, our solidarity, cohesion and readiness to meet any challenge.

“If the west thinks that Russia will step back, it does not understand Russia.”

For the same reasons, it makes the Prime Ministers of Poland, Czech Republic and Slovenia wonder if the Kremlin is merely shifting the focus away from the killing grounds to the side theatre and pictures from the negotiations to disguise his true expansionist intentions.

But the fact that the talks have been lasting longer and have lasted for three days is “a good sign”, since it means negotiations have entered a serious phase.

Alas, what actually happened in the peace talks is for those inside the room to decipher and decide. 

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