Experts Say Zero Local Daily COVID-19 Cases Consistently Isn’t Realistic As Imported Case Might Leak to the Community

The Multi-Ministry Task Force has said it. Zero cases are impossible.

DPM Heng Swee Keat has said it. This won’t be over unless a vaccine is found.

Today’s daily report (14 Oct) has said it. Yesterday was an exception.

But if you’re still dreaming of a zero-case tomorrow, and every day after, the experts are saying it once again.

You won’t have zero cases consistently despite the stellar results over the past few days.

Wishing otherwise is like saying, I will become a millionaire…by buying Toto.

Millions wished for it. Only a handful actually saw that dream come true.

And that’s the same for the Covid-19 situation in Singapore.

Experts Say Zero Local Daily COVID-19 Cases Consistently Isn’t Realistic As Imported Case Might Leak to the Community

The experts have spoken (again).

This time, to warn people in Singapore against hoping for a consistent zero for community cases.

“At least not for now.”

TODAYonline went around asking infectious diseases specialists in Singapore for their opinion on the encouraging results in the past 12 days for their opinion on the Covid-19 situation in Singapore.

Associate Professor Cook, vice dean of research at the Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health said that given how cross-border travel is looking to resume gradually, the number of imported cases will likely increase as well.

And not just that, a 14-day Stay-Home-Notice (SHN) and a swab test cannot guarantee that Covid-19 won’t spread to the local community, he stresses.

Professor Paul Tambyah of the Asia-Pacific Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infection thinks that having zero cases is possible as long as Singapore’s test positivity rate (number of positive tests vs total tests) is 3%.

Currently, Singapore stands at 5.8%. Close but no dice.

Test, Test & More Test

Experts agree that testing should still be the key focus in the battle against Covid-19.

Detect them earlier, isolate them faster and help them recover quicker.

Dr Tambyah said that the key to having zero cases is to identify all cases and their contacts, be able to isolate them appropriately and have “broad-scale surveillance” for early detection.

He noted that while extensive, individuals with no symptoms and not part of MOH’s extended community surveillance would find it hard to get a Covid-19 swab test.

It was added that currently, individuals who have no symptoms but are worried about being infected generally do not undergo testing.

Dr Cook pointed out that with borders gradually reopening, Singapore now needs, more than ever, “gold standard and rapid tests”.

This will help to lower the risk of infection to a point where contact tracing is sufficient to clear up any leaks.

Asymptomatic Cases 

Previously, Health Minister Gan Kim Yong had said that even if the number of daily new cases reaches zero, it’s not a cause for celebration because, given the insidious nature of Covid-19, you can never be sure if it’s because there’s no more coronavirus or if it’s just undetected.

Both experts spoken to agree with his sentiments.

Dr Tambyah noted that the reason why many other countries are facing second waves or even a third is because of asymptomatic cases.

Dr Cook also cautioned against the goal of “zero quarantine”.

He believes that as long as the number of cases continues to fall, the number of people who are in quarantine will naturally fall.

Quarantining people, whether they’re really infected or not, has always been a keystone of Singapore’s success, he explains, and in order to remain equally effective at curbing Covid-19 transmission, Singapore must continuously quarantine contacts of cases.

Other Factors

It’s not just testing or quarantine that’ll help keep Covid-19 infections down.

Other factors play a part too, especially support from the community.

This means no socialising in groups of more than 5 (although this limit might change soon), washing your hands regularly with soap and going to see a doctor immediately if you suspect there’s anything wrong.

Keep doing that and chances are, just like the Hyundai advertisement shows, we could be looking at a future where Covid-19 and safe-distancing is a thing of the past.

At least until the next big thing comes along lah.

And the best way to keep the virus at bay? Wear your masks. Watch this video to the end and you’d understand (please also subscribe to our YouTube channel for more informative videos!):