Experts Say S’pore Looks Ready to Move to Phase 2, Which Means Bubble Tea is Coming

Looking at the daily Ministry of Health (MOH) updates and worrying as the number of community cases climbed up?

Worried that the next announcement made will be by PM Lee in blue, talking about how we have to enter Circuit Breaker again?

Wondering if you can go ahead and make plans to meet with friends in July 2020, safely?

Well, this might just be the article for you.

Experts Say S’pore Looks Ready to Move to Phase 2, Which Means Bubble Tea is Coming

According to an ST report on 12 Jun, experts who have been studying the data since Phase 1 started have good news for you.

It seems like Singapore is “well on track to further easing restrictions (read: enter Phase 2).

10 to 14 days after the Circuit Breaker is a good time to look at the situation, the experts opined.

That’s because, if we assume that a lot of infections happened on 2 Jun, 10 to 14 days is the time required for “two cycles of transmission for the virus”: person A infects person B and person B infects person C.

And so far, the data looks very promising, said Associate Professor Alex Cook. He added that there isn’t a huge resurgence of cases in the community.

Increase Of Community Cases ‘Not Worrying’

While the number of community cases has increased, it’s due to Singapore’s ability to do more tests, which allows authorities to catch more cases and isolate them.

For the increase in unlinked community cases, it’s Singapore’s active screening (which is only possible because of the ability to do more tests) that is picking them up.

Health authorities have always known that there are undetected cases out there, and some of the cases picked up by active screening may already have gotten over the infection.

And remember, when Minister Lawrence Wong previously announced the conditions of entering Phase 2, he didn’t say they want 0 or reduced number of community cases.

They’re looking for something more stable:

“If community transmission remains low and stable, then we will decide by the middle of June on whether we want to take the next step of moving to Phase Two, and that means Phase Two could happen before the end of June.”

They’ve also come out to assure Singaporeans that while community cases have increased, the situation is totally under control.

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Other Factors 

Besides the number of cases, the experts are also looking at three other factors:

• healthcare capacity
• how cases are being picked up
• and how long cases are picked up after showing symptoms

Healthcare Capacity

With 2 Covid-19 patients in ICU and 227 in hospitals, the Singapore healthcare still has room to deal with more cases.

Dr Leong Hoe Nam commented that without a vaccine, completely eradicating the virus is impossible. The only thing we can do right now is to make sure that there is healthcare capacity available so that for Covid-19 patients who really need it, they will have medical equipment that can potentially save their lives.

So, he concluded, the formula is still “flattening the curve“.

How Are Cases Picked Up?

If cases turn up at the clinics with no idea of where they got it from, it’s bad.

But if they were discovered via contact tracing (e.g. patient B’s wife was tested and she turns out to be infected too), then it’s good.

SafeEntry and the proposed new device will help Singapore to contact trace better, which is important because of the next point.

Duration Between Showing Symptoms & Getting Isolated

How long after cases show symptoms and get picked up is also an important factor.

The longer the duration, the higher the chance of spreading the infection around.

In early February, it took an average of about eight days for an unlinked community case. Now, it has dropped to four to five days.

With better contact tracing, more people can be discovered and tested, reducing the time of exposure to the public if they are infected.

Singaporeans Must Be Socially Responsible

Previously, the World Health Organisation (WHO) said that transmission of Covid-19 by an asymptomatic case (shows little to no symptoms of the virus) is “rare”.

This means (if it’s true) that if every symptomatic case is picked up by the government, we can “significantly reduce” Covid-19 cases in Singapore.

While the Singapore government can ramp up testing and do more active screening on the community, we should also do our part.

If you’re feeling even a little bit unwell, go see a doctor.

Wear a mask at all time in case you’re a carrier of the virus and deep in the infectious period.

And wait patiently for Phase 2 to happen, which, if the experts are right, will be coming soon.

Here’s a little something to motivate you (and me because I desperately need it too) into keeping up the good work:

What Can You Do During Phase 2?

More firms and businesses, starting with F&B dine-in and retail outlets, gyms and fitness studios, and tuition and enrichment centres, will gradually be allowed to reopen if they can maintain a safe environment for their customers.

Yes, most likely including bubble tea too.

Dining will be also allowed in Phase 2, so you can finally eat your Chendol at the coffee shop without getting a $300 fine.

All students return to school and increase the number of students back on IHL campuses at any one time for face-to-face learning, but this depends on the situation.

And the best part?

You can finally meet your boyfriend/girlfriend again because you can have social interaction again, limited to five people.

To find out more about Phase 2, you can read more here.